IPCC REPORT UPDATE
Topic: What consequences does the recent report indicate? A look to the future. Warming of 1.5C above preindustrial is projected to have significant impact for human and natural systems, with an additional unit of warming projected to be associated with further risks. These risks include increased mortality from a range of climate-sensitive health outcomes, increased food insecurity, and increased wildfires. What are the adaptation and mitigation options for reducing risks over shorter and longer time scales?
Dr. Kristie L. Ebi, Director of the Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), and Rohm and Haas Endowed Professor in Public Health Services at the University of Washington, Lead Author on Chapter 3 of IPCC Report
Kristie L. Ebi has been conducting research and practice on the health risks of climate variability and change for over twenty years, focusing on understanding sources of vulnerability, estimating current and future health risks of climate change, and designing adaptation policies and measures to reduce the risks of climate change in multi-stressor environments. She has supported multiple countries in Central America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Pacific in assessing their vulnerabilities and implementing adaptation policies and programs. She has been an author on multiple national and international climate change assessments, including the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. She co-chairs the International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS) that created five scenarios of socioeconomic development over this century. Dr. Ebi’s scientific training includes an M.S. in toxicology and a Ph.D. and a Masters of Public Health in epidemiology, and two years of postgraduate research at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. She has edited fours books on aspects of climate change and has more than 200 publications.
Topic: Is the American forecast model as good, better or behind the European model? The man leading the intellectual charge on the American model, Dr. Shian-Jiann Lin is making a rare appearance for the latest update on the system and what it means for forecasting.
Dr. Shian-Jiann (S.J.) Lin, Leader, Weather and Climate Dynamics Division, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Head of the Weather and Climate Dynamics Division at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Dr. Shian-Jiann (S.J.) Lin is widely recognized as a leading expert on numerical methods for weather prediction and climate modeling. His research has pioneered new frontiers in algorithms for weather and climate models, leading to important breakthroughs in prediction capabilities.
Dr. Lin’s significant contributions to weather and climate include leading the development of a dynamical core, Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3), which is the basis of all of GFDL’s climate models. In addition, the National Weather Service’s operational Next Generation Global Prediction System will be based on FV3. Many other climate modeling labs around the world use FV3 as the dynamical core that drives their climate models. It has proven capable of accurately predicting individual hurricanes as well as hurricane seasons, and is capable even of forecasting individual severe storms, such as those that spawn tornadoes. FV3 is helping to unify regional and global models for both weather and climate applications.
Dr. Lin’s innovative research has been applied to wide-ranging climate impacts, including dust, tropical cyclone activity, warming temperatures, winter storms, and other extremes. The breadth of his research is reflected in more than 70 published papers in peer-reviewed journals, including numerous highly cited papers attesting to its significant impact. Dr. Lin has served in crucial leadership roles for both NASA and NOAA. His expertise has been recognized and sought internationally and he has given invited talks at major scientific institutions in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. Dr. Lin is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. He has been at GFDL since 2003 and holds graduate degrees in Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering as well as Atmospheric Sciences.
TIME Magazine, Aug. 20, 2018: The U.S. Desperately Needs a Better Way to Predict Storms. One Scientist Might Have the Solution
HURRICANES: PREDICTING THE UNPREDICTABLE - MESSAGING CHALLENGES FOR MAJOR/HISTORIC EVENTS
Topic: Trying to forecast an event that no one has ever experienced presents major challenges to both the messenger and the audience. Can the public or decision makers really comprehend what you are trying to convey? Do you really believe what you are saying? How far out on a limb can we go, and still hold some credibility? We will look at some of the messaging challenges from our recent, historic hurricanes (including a focus on Harvey's record rainfall), and how they can apply to weather events elsewhere.
Jeffry Evans, Meteorologist in Charge, National Weather Service, Houston/Galveston, TX
Jeff Evans, an Oklahoma native, has been with the National Weather Service for over 27 years, starting in Wyoming as an entry level meteorologist in August 1991. He accepted a position with the Storm Prediction Center in 1995 as a severe storm forecaster for the nation where he spent 15 years working as a specialist on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, becoming a lead at SPC in 2002. In 2010 Jeff left the SPC to become the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS office in Tallahassee, FL where he worked a number of tropical storms and flood events, and worked as primary liaison between the NWS and the state of FL. In 2014 he was selected to run the NWS office in Houston/Galveston as the Meteorologist in Charge where he oversees and manages the operations and services for the agency across southeast TX. In this role Jeff has supported 5 federally declared national disasters (including Hurricane Harvey), a Superbowl and multiple other local/state/federal supported events.
PANEL: NATIONAL WILDFIRE IMPACTS/SOLUTIONS
Topic: What public and private sectors need to know, historical perspective, fire management/response, impacts of climate change, potential suggestions and solutions
Alex Hoon, National Weather Service Reno Incident Meteorologist
Alex graduated from Texas A&M University, served in the U.S. Air Force as a weather officer, then joined the National Weather Service in Reno. His passion is fire weather, the impact of weather events in causing extreme fire behavior, and providing on-site decision support to fire leadership and personnel. Alex has been an Incident Meteorologist for 8 years, deploying to numerous large notable wildfires across the Western States, including the 2011 Wallow Fire in Arizona (largest wildfire in Arizona history), the 2013 Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park, and most recently the 2018 Carr Fire that burned over 1000 homes around Redding, California. Alex also serves as the Fire Weather Program Manager for the Eastern Sierra, Lake Tahoe, and western Nevada region.
Matt Mehle, National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area Incident Meteorologist
Matt enjoys the many aspects of weather forecasting, but has a true passion for fire weather. Over the last 10 years as an Incident Meteorologist, he has been deployed to numerous disasters providing on-site weather to first responders and incident personnel. Some of the more notable deployments include the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and several of California’s largest wildfires. Most recently, Matt was the on-site meteorologist deployed to the most destructive wildfire in California’s history, the Tubbs Fire. Over the course of his career, Matt has received numerous awards and accolades for his role as Incident Meteorologist. In addition to forecasting the weather, Matt is also a fire weather instructor teaching wildland firefighters basic meteorology and how weather influences the wildland fire environment.
Michael Reid, Aviation Safety Officer and Air Safety Investigator for the Washington Office of the United States Forest Service (USFS)
Nearly 25 years combined as a firefighter specializing in aviation has helped Michaal Reid excel in his current position as an Aviation Safety Officer and Air Safety Investigator for the Washington Office of the United States Forest Service (USFS) in Boise Idaho.
Michael grew up the son of a Forest Ranger. In his youth he gained an appreciation for the outdoors and everything Mother Nature had to offer while walking in his father’s footsteps scouting the timbered landscape of Northern Arizona near Flagstaff. Later in life, while attending the University of Utah chasing a medical degree, Michael was reminded of his love for the great outdoors. Changing course, he went back to his roots and became a wildland firefighter. Since that time, Michael has been “boots on the ground” working on hand crews, operating engines and attacking fires from helicopters. He has worked for State Fire, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Office of Aviation Services and the USFS at all levels in their joint mission to manage the fire landscape.
Michael is an expert at identifying and mitigating risk associated with firefighting operations. He is an accomplished and well-respected leader in aviation operations. Highly regarded for his efforts in training and mentoring a new generation of firefighters, Michael is known for being a passionate and excellent communicator.
Chris Anthony, Division Chief for CAL FIRE Amador-El Dorado Unit East Division Operations
Chris Anthony earned his Bachelor of Science Degree in Forestry from the University of California Berkeley. During his tenure at UC Berkeley, he also studied resource management at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. Chris considers his 23-year career with CAL FIRE as more of a calling than a job. He has worked in disciplines ranging from forest management, firefighter training and safety, law enforcement, fire investigation, administration, and fire suppression operations. In 2015 Chris was appointed as the Deputy Task Force Leader for the Governor’s Tree Mortality Task Force; helping to lead an effort of over 80 federal, state and local entities in response to the Governor’s Emergency Proclamation to address the massive tree die off in the Sierra Nevada. He currently serves as a working group leader on the Governor’s Forest Management Task Force; a task force formed to address threats and find solutions to how a changing climate is affecting the State’s forests.
Chris often works with the media during major fires in order to provide a firefighter’s perspective on how weather and climate influence the fire environment. Chris is also a Serious Accident Review Team Lead Investigator. In 2005 he was honored to respond as part of a CAL FIRE Task Force to assist the State of Louisiana in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Chris is a Registered Professional Forester and Peace Officer with the State of California. He lives in South Lake Tahoe with his family and enjoys all the recreational opportunities the area affords.